By Robert Pore
robert.pore@theindependent.com

According to the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization, world fertilizer production is expected to meet demand over the next five years and will support higher levels of food and biofuel production.

The FAO recently issued a report titled "Current world fertilizer trends and outlook to 2011/12."

"High commodity prices experienced over recent years led to increased production and correspondingly to greater fertilizer use," said Jan Poulisse, FAO fertilizer expert.

Poulisse said greater fertilizer demand has led to tight markets and higher prices.

"While it is expected that the demand for basic food crops, fruits and vegetables, for animal products and for biofuel crops is likely to remain strong, we expect fertilizer supply to grow sufficiently to meet higher consumption," he said.

Adding to the fertilizer woes are higher energy costs, as crude oil prices this week reached more than $100 per barrel.

The FAO report estimates that world fertilizer supply nitrogen, phosphate and potash nutrient will increase by some 34 million metric tons, representing an annual growth rate of 3 percent between 2007-08 and 2011-12, comfortably sufficient to cover demand growth of 1.9 percent annually.

The report said total production is expected to grow from 206.5 million metric tons in 2007-08 to 241 million metric tons in 2011-12.

Fertilizer demand, the report added, will increase from 197 million metric tons today to 216 million metric tons in 2011-12.

World nitrogen supply is forecast to rise by 23.1 million metric tons by 2011-12; world phosphate fertilizer supply will increase by 6.3 million metric tons and potash supply by 4.9 million metric tons.

The report said Africa will remain a major phosphate exporter and will increase nitrogen exports while importing all of its potash. Fertilizer consumption in Africa continues to be largely restricted to 10 countries. The continent's main consumers are Egypt, South Africa and Morocco.

North America will continue to be a net importer of nitrogen, face an increasing phosphate deficit and remain a primary supplier of potash.

Asia is expected to produce a rapidly increasing surplus of nitrogen, but will continue to import phosphate and potash.