A presidential veto seems a certainty if the bill passed by Congress fails to meet the administration's test for "no new taxes" and substantial reform in farm policy related to changes in commodities covered, energy, conservation, nutrition, research and risk.

Secretary of Agriculture Ed Schafer has been working the media channels this month to defend the administration's goals for reform as necessary for energy self-sufficiency and for U.S. producers to better compete in the global economy.

The administration's proposals were formed out of a process that began with some 50 forums held across the country. The more than 4,000 comments gathered were used to frame a new direction for farm policy and programs.

The House and Senate have spent 13 exhausting and exasperating months conducting hearings, conferences and committee work and, yet, the two parties cannot resolve differences on how the additional $10 billion in spending will be covered, nor can they agree on a minimal range of reforms needed to produce a veto-proof bill.

To compound the frustration, a jurisdictional battle is being waged between the Senate ag and finance committees over which body has more control in the final packaging of the bill.

Schafer contends that as much as $6 billion of the $10 billion in additional farm program spending can be justified by offsetting savings proposed by the administration.

Ranchers are deep into the calving season and farmers have already made financial decisions for this planting season without knowing under which rules they will be subjected as the season and the markets promise nothing but risk at this point.

The highest-at-risk producers are the most vulnerable now as they are not protected by provisions for the new planting season.

Certainly, some comfort can be found in high but variable grain prices. But risks are also high at present and a dynamic new influence on grain markets has emerged. High grain prices have drawn speculators and index funds into the futures markets forcing producers, elevators, co-ops and traditional grain merchandisers to the sidelines because they are not positioned to deal with such broad swings in future grain prices. Soaring land prices and fuel costs add to the worries of ag producers.

Congress needs to avoid election year gridlock and do its job for American farmers and ranchers. If the economy continues to soften, one of the cornerstones of the U.S. economy agriculture could be in serious trouble.